Is January's Jobs Report a Game Changer? | by Matt Valley | Summarizing the consensus amongst economists, Matt Valley writes that the recovery "a number of factors could still hamper the pace of employment growth." Sam Chandan adds: the unemployment rate fell by 20 basis points in January to 8.3 percent, the lowest level since February 2009. That’s partly because the labor force participation rate continues to fall, rendering the highly touted decline in the unemployment rate woefully misleading.

Blackstone Raises $6 Billion for New Property Fund | by Anjli Raval and Dan McCrum

The Financial Times reports that Blackstone Group "has secured more than $6 billion in pledged capital for a new property fund, largely comprised of distressed assets." Distressed funds have faced challenges in deploying capital, Sam Chandan explains:

Will Housing Improve in 2012? In a speech earlier in the week, President Clinton suggested that a recovery in housing is the key to a broader economic recovery. In this interview with Dagen McDowell and Connell McShane, Sam Chandan offers an update on conditions in the housing market and the outlook for ownership and rental demand in 2012.

Watch the video at Fox Business News.

Euro Investors Slow Investment Into New York City Commercial Market | by Tom Acitelli | Manhattan’s commercial property market will see less investment from Eurozone countries in 2012, as the continent continues to struggle with it sovereign debt crisis, writes Tom Acitelli.

European banks are undercapitalized, adds Sam Chandan, and many of them are in the position of having to increase their capital cushions. They generally have two choices to do that: they can find equity, or they can sell some assets.

Realtors Revise Home Sales Data Sam Chandan speaks with Fox Business News' Ashley Webster following a downward revision in historical home sales data by the National Association of Realtors. Looking forward, Dr Chandan argues that a sustainable recovery in housing rests upon stronger job creation. Very low mortgage rates have characterized the market for some time but, on their own, are insufficient to reverse the decline in homeownership.

GSEs Get Roped into Payroll Tax Tug-of-War Proposals in Congress that would see an extension of the payroll tax cut offset by new revenue from agency financing fees may present new headwinds for the housing market. GlobeSt's Erika Morphy explains:

CRE Default Rate Flat in Texas Austin Business Journal's Cody Lyon reports on the findings of the Chandan's third quarter bank default and lending report and trends for Texas-based banks. Lyon writes that Texas default rates have been largely unchanged over the last year:

Texas commercial default rates remained essentially flat over the past year. In the third quarter 2011, 3.08 percent of Texas commercial loans on bank’s books were in default, mirroring the same quarter last year and slightly down from the 3.26 percent reported second quarter 2011.

Housing Hitting Bottom? Following the release of new data showing a rise in home sales, Connell McShane speaks with Sam Chandan about the sector's outlook. In spite of record-low mortgage rates, rising rents, and declining house prices, the increase in sales activity has been relatively modest. Dr Chandan explains why a sustained improvement in housing is unlikely to assert itself in the near- to medium-term.

Visit our new page – Chandan on the Housing Market – for this and other recent commentary on housing market conditions.

Lenders Eye a Project's Location | by Cody Lyon | Lending conditions are improving even as historical loan performance trends remain mixed, explains Cody Lyon. Among other examples, Lyon cites a $35 million construction loan for RiverView Apartments in Austin made by Bank America. Jones Lang LaSalle Capital Markets' Jimmy Board tells Lyon that banks are among the sources of credit reengaging with borrowers:

Coach Commits to Moving to New York City's Hudson Yards | by Ilaina Jonas | Related Companies' 26-acre development on Manhattan's West Side has announced its first major commitment, explains Ilaina Jonas. Retailer Coach said it intends to purchase 600,000 square feet in one of the project's towers. Construction at Hudson Yards is expected to begin in mid-2012 with completion projected for 2015.

Read the full story at the Reuters website.

Refinancing Plan for Struggling Homeowners | Sam Chandan speaks with Fox News' Jenna lee regarding the Administration's most recent proposals for supporting homeowners by expanding access to mortgage refinancing. Dr Chandan explains that the program is limited in its scope since it applies to bank-held mortgages and cases where borrowers with negative equity have remained current on their payments.

Why the Administration’s New Tax Proposals Won’t Create Jobs | Interview with Dagen McDowell | Sam Chandan speaks with Fox Business Networks' Dagen McDowell about the economics of the Administration's latest proposals to spur job creation. While lowering payroll taxes should encourage employment in principle, weak business confidence and concerns about the sustainability of demand in the event of a relapse into recession are constraining payroll expansion.

Details of September Jobs Report Disappoint | by Sam Chandan | September's employment report surpassed economists’ baseline expectations but still fell woefully short in bolstering confidence that we are on the cusp of a more robust jobs recovery. Private employers expanded payrolls by 137,000 jobs, more than offsetting the anticipated drag from cutbacks in government employment. The private tally included approximately 45,000 Verizon workers who had been on strike the prior month.

Office Sector Enters New Stage of Recovery | by Elaine Misonzhnik | Falling cap rates in cardinal markets are forcing investors to examine opportunities in secondary markets. Dr Sam Chandan explains that investors are seeking higher returns than can be found in the markets that have dominated the investment recovery thus far. Elaine Misonzhnik writes: "While office buildings in New York, Washington, D.C. and San Francisco come with fewer risks, cap rates for assets in those markets are now nearing pre-downturn levels, according to Sam Chandan."

Real Estate Investors Like Texas | by Cody Lyon | Following his commercial real estate market update at the National Association for Business Economics' annual meeting in Dallas, Dr Sam Chandan spoke with Cody Lyon about the outlook for Texas and national real estate markets. Dr Chandan offered an upbeat assessment of Texas markets, saying that "... while not without risks, Texas markets have attracted attention because of their stronger underlying economies and momentum in the job market — trends we do not see in most other parts of the country."

Mortgage Metrics Dropped in Second Quarter | by Carl Gaines | Both loan-to-value ratios and debt yields declined between the first and second quarters, Carl Gaines writes in GlobeSt's coverage of Chandan's latest report on the quality of newly-originated mortgages. Gaines goes on to explain as follows:

Will the Fed's Rate Decision Bolster the Economy? | by Matt Hudgins | Following the Federal Open Market Committee's announcement that the target Fed Funds rate will remain at historically low levels through mid-2013, Matt Hudgins warns "commercial real estate investors to be prepared in case capital costs rise despite the Fed’s efforts." Sam Chandan offers that "low short- and long-term interest rates relieve some of the upward pressure on cap rates and mortgage financing costs.” Still, the Fed's move is not a panacea.

After the S&P Downgrade | by Erika Morphy | Following the downgrade of US, S&P also lowered the credit ratings of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. What does the downgrade mean for the apartment sector? Higher costs of capital. In contrast, Treasury yields fell after they were downgraded. Sam Chandan explains that ""investors are nervous, and that will result in a flight to quality. That means capital flowing into Treasuries, in spite of the ratings adjustment, which may push yields even lower than we observed during the recession."

Is the Bloom Off the Homeownership Rose? | by Jerry Ascierto | Pointing out that the national homeownership rate has fallen to a 13-year low, Jerry Ascierto asks if the shift represents a cyclical move away from ownership or a structural adjustment.

Europe’s Newest Agreement No Panacea | Europe's newest plan to stave off a broader debt crisis may not be scaleable and flexible enough to offset the vagaries of bond investor sentiment, Sam Chandan offers in his assessing the latest developments on the Continent. The possibility of a Eurobond may address the crisis in a more robust manner, but will also add to upward pressure on Treasury yields in the United States:

Lessons for the US from the Italian Debt Crisis | Dr Sam Chandan describes how Europe’s intractable sovereign debt crisis has engulfed Italy, forcing the adoption of $56 billion in austerity measures that are projected to bring the country’s budget into balance in 2014. Italy is making more progress towards fiscal discipline than the United States, where policymakers are deadlocked over whether to cut back while the recovery remains fragile. The research shows that, under some circumstances, moves towards fiscal discipline can be expansionary.

Corporate Ladder: Top Economist Launches New Research Firm | by Jonathan Holin | In this interview with Multifamily Executive magazine, Dr Sam Chandan explains his plans for Chandan Economics and gives insight into the past, present, and future of the multifamily sector. In describing the key challenges for the sector, he cites rising interest rates, the sector’s changing relationship to housing, and reform of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

REIT Executive Pay Surpasses Pre-Recession Levels | by Matt Hudgins | A new survey from FTI Consulting shows that REIT CEO compensation increased significantly in 2010, NREI contributing writer Matt Hudgins explains. Commenting on the findings, Dr Sam Chandan adds that "REITs’ access to investor capital and leverage put them in an enviable position in 2010 and helped the sector emerge as the strongest buyers in the market last year ... That positioning, combined with strengthening market caps, is consistent with observable improvements in compensation."

Wide Spread in Banks' CRE Default Rates | 40 percent of banks have CRE default rates of less than 1 percent as of Q1 2011. That is good news for policymakers concerned about the ongoing impact of non-performing property loans on the health and lending capacity of regional and community banks. Balancing this finding, a large minority of institutions still face serious challenges from elevated distress. In the extreme, 75 institutions with $13 billion in CRE loans report default rates of 20 percent or more.

Construction Lending and Manhattan Exceptionalism | Outside of the apartment sector, where fundamentals have strengthened in the context of a moribund housing market, there is ample reason for developers in most markets to hold off on new construction projects until asset prices and space demand show signs of sustainable improvement. The data confirm that, at least for now, construction and related lending remain subdued.

Residential Market Outlook | In this live town hall discussion with Fox News' Jenna Lee and Dr Dani Babb, Sam Chandan comments on the latest housing data, which show a 3.8 percent drop in existing home sales in May, and his expectations for the newly introduced Emergency Homeowner Loan Program (EHLP). Expectations are low for the EHLP, he explains, in part because distressed homeowners only have until late-July to submit requests for assistance.

Watching the Watchers: The Metrics of the Real Estate Recovery | In Manhattan and other major markets, the consensus at mid-year holds that commercial real estate investment and credit market conditions have improved markedly since last summer. There is a lot of support for this assessment: clear evidence of rising transaction volume; an increasing diversity of lenders extending credit in support of property sales and the refinancing of maturing mortgages; and an uptick in the gross absorption of available space.

Second Mortgage-Holders Saddled with Negative Equity | In this interview with Fox Business' Cheryl Casone and Dennis Kneale, Sam Chandan comments on the sources and current policy alternatives for addressing the large number of home-owners with second mortgages and negative equity in their homes. Few options are available for these homeowners, apart from in-place federal assistance programs. In the current political environment, the Administration is not expected to propose any new programs.