Chandan Economics

Q1 2013 Apartment Financing Trends

Apartment debt yields fell below 9.0 percent during the first quarter, as lenders vied for opportunities to originate loans against performing assets with low cash flow risk. Financing cap rate and interest rate spreads both narrowed.

Special Report on Apartment Lending and Credit Risk

Even as underwriting holds to in-place cash flow, historically low-cost financing and the competitive overlap between agency and non-agency lenders are driving exit risks for new loans. These risks are largely mispriced by conventional credit risk models.

Q4 2012 Bank Default and Lending Report

Banks' multifamily and commercial property default rates fall. Biggest jump in net lending in four years.

Measuring Agency MBS Risk

Using the same models applied to bank and life company loans, the Agency Loan Analyst report quantifies potential default and loss severity across each new issue's loan pool.

Lending Trends Data & Reports

Based on Chandan Economics' database of new multifamily and commercial real estate loans, originated across balance sheet, agency, and conduit lenders.

LATEST RESEARCH & REPORTS
May 8 | National Commercial Debt & Investment Trends (Industrial, Office, and Retail) Q1'13 Report | Summary
May 3 | National and Metro Apartment Debt & Investment Trends Q1'13 Reports
May 2 | RELA–Chandan Survey of Commercial Real Estate Lender Sentiment Q1'13

CHANDAN VIDEO

May 31 | REIT.COM (NAREIT)

Banks' Commercial Real Estate Loan Default Rates Continue to Decline | by Carisa Chappell

NAREIT writes: The bank default rate among commercial real estate loans in the first quarter of 2012 fell to its lowest level in nearly three years, according to an analysis released May 30 ... “The overall decline in the default rate reflects a relatively larger improvement in legacy apartment loan performance,” said Sam Chandan, president and chief economist with Chandan Economics.

Q1 2012 Bank CRE Debt and Lending Report

The default rate across commercial real estate and apartment (multifamily) loans held by banks fell to 3.45 percent in Q1 2012, the lowest level since Q2 2009. The overall decline in the default rate reflects a relatively larger improvement in legacy apartment loan performance. The apartment default rate fell to 2.36 percent in Q1 2012, down 131 basis points from a year earlier, to its lowest level since Q4 2008. The quarterly net charge-off rate for apartment loans fell to its lowest level since Q3 2008.

May 30 | Fox Business

Chandan: Potential Homeowners Still Opting to Rent Rather Than Buy | Interview with Connell McShane

Sam Chandan discusses the latest drop in Treasury yields, the impact on mortgage financing rates, and updates on housing and apartment trends, including findings from Axiometrics that show a 7.7 percent annualized rate of increase in national year-to-date apartment rent.

May 22 | CNBC Squawk Box

Outlook for the US Economy, Housing Markets, and Jobs | Interview with Martin Soong

In this interview with CNBC's Martin Soong, Sam Chandan argues that employment trends should improve after two months of disappointing job gains. But spillovers into the housing market will be tempered by constrained access to mortgages.

May 22 | Fox Business

Is the Housing Recovery in Sight? Interview with Fox Business Anchor Cheryl Casone

Sam Chandan offers a guarded assessment of the latest housing data, pointing to recent weakness in the job market as one reason that gains in home sales will be measured.

Watch the video here or at the Fox Business website: foxbusiness.com

May 10 | CNBC Squawk Box

Bank Stress Tests Offer Weak Assessment of Tail Risks | Interview with Lisa Oake

Sam Chandan discusses recent monetary policy developments, including comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at the 8th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, with CNBC's Lisa Oak.