Independent Landlord Rental Performance Report: July 2023

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Key Takeaways

• The on-time payment rate in independently operated rental units held flat in July, remaining at 81.8%.

• Compared to a year earlier, the on-time payment rate remains up by 105 bps.

• The July 2023 forecast full payment rate is 91.9% — just 65 bps below its post-pandemic peak.

• A handful of western states hold the highest on-time payment rates in the country, led by Oregon (90.1%), Arizona (88.3%), Washington (87.6%), California (87.4%), and Colorado (86.4%).

• Single-Family Rental (SFR) properties held the highest on-time payment rates of all sub-property types in June, coming in at 82.1%.

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National Overview

On-time rental payments in units operated by independent landlords remained effectively unchanged in July 2023 from the prior month. As of this month’s preliminary estimate, 81.8% of tenants in independently operating rental units have completed their monthly payments on time. The on-time payment rate is down by a marginal five (5) bps from a month prior. While the July 2023 on-time payment sits 294 bps lower than the high watermark set in March (84.2%), it remains up year-over-year by 105 bps.

On balance, despite on-time payment rates moving slightly lower in recent months, current collection trends constitute healthy performance. Most encouragingly, July’s forecast full-payment rate, which takes on-time payments, late payments, and expected late payments based on historical trends, improved to 91.9% — increasing 42 bps month-over-month. Further, compared to March 2023’s peak full collection rate (92.5%), July’s estimate is down by only 65 bps.

Overall, these data underscore how the rental housing sector has fended off widespread distress. So long as the cash flow ecosystem between tenants, operators, and lenders stays intact, owners will remain in a position where they can wait out the current interest rate climate and allow for pricing to recover. Given the impact of higher interest rates, incoming buyers have higher yield requirements for deals to make sense. At the same time, most existing asset owners are locked into rock-bottom interest rates secured over the past few years. The net result of the above is that fewer trades are occurring. In a scenario where rent collection rates were lower, there would invariably be more distressed sales.

Data Findings: By Property Type

Data Findings: By State

About This Report

The Independent Landlord Rental Performance report is a real-time look at how well non-institutional operators are collecting owed monthly rental payments. Utilizing data provided by property management software RentRedi, these findings have a reduced sample size of 53,963 units, which are analyzed and reported by Chandan Economics. Where sample size quality meets sufficient reporting standards, data are offered from March 2020 forward, and new trends and analyses are reported monthly. Performance trends are discussed nationally, as well as along the lines of residential property type and geography.

Data contained within this report offer investors, brokers, academic researchers, and policymakers a benchmark to track the performance and health of independent landlords.

About: Chandan Economics

Chandan Economics is an economic advisory and data science firm serving the commercial real estate industry. The firm's primary businesses include real estate data science (REDS), economic & market research, and litigation consulting.

About: RentRedi

RentRedi is a property management software that saves landlords time & money by empowering them with tech to manage their rentals—all from the palm of their hand.

For landlords, RentRedi provides all-in-one web and mobile apps to collect rent, list & market vacancies, find & screen tenants, sign leases, and manage maintenance & accounting. RentRedi has partnered with platforms including Plaid, REI Hub, Latchel, TransUnion, TSYS, Sure Insurance, and Realtor.com, and Doorsteps to create the best experience possible.

For tenants, RentRedi’s easy-to-use mobile app allows them to pay rent, set up auto-pay, report rent payments to credit bureaus, prequalify & sign leases, and submit maintenance requests

Methodology

Data are reported on a forward basis from March 2020 through July 2023 (current reporting period). As of the latest month of data availability, the reduced unit sample size totals 53,963. Rent charges are measured on a 15th-to-15th-of-the-month basis. Rent charges that are issued after the 15th of the current month are treated as a rent charge for the following rent-tracking period. (E.g., a rent charge sent on June 16th would be treated as a charge corresponding to July's owed rental payment.)

Only charges designated as "rental income" are included for analysis. Rent charges below $500 and above $10,000 are excluded from this analysis.

Units that have not paid any form of rental income (full or partial) in the previous 60 days at the time a new rental charge is issued are removed from the sample tracking sample. Unpaid units refer to all units that have yet to fully satisfy their owed rents for a collection period. These unpaid units include units that have only partially paid their rent. As a means of reporting standardization, units with more than one monthly rent charge (E.g., rent paid weekly) are removed from the rent tracking sample.