In Some Metros, Modest Cost Burden Growth Masks a Sharper Affordability Crisis

Key Takeaways

On average, renter cost burden levels improved steadily in almost every major US metro between 2012 and 2019, then reversed, with the bulk of that increase already visible by 2021.

Several Sun Belt metros rank high in cost burden increases since 2019, but most were front-loaded early in the pandemic as surges in domestic migration strained affordable housing availability.

For some metros, tepid shifts in cost burden levels conceal sharper increases in the severe cost burden rate, evidence that the topline number does not always capture where distress is concentrated.

Roughly half of American renters are cost-burdened, meaning they spend 30% or more of their income on rent, but there are large variations from metro to metro.

The national share of cost-burdened renter households fell from 51.4% in 2012 to a low of 47.9% in 2019, then increased sharply during the early pandemic years, reaching 51.1% of renters through 2024, roughly in line with its 2012 level.

From 2019 to 2022, renter cost burdens worsened in nearly every one of the 50 largest US metros. Since then, the trend has plateaued or improved in most metros, but all except two maintain cumulative increases since 2019.

The intensity of the pandemic-era increases varies widely metro by metro. Cost burdens in twelve of the most affected metros have increased by 6.0 or more percentage points since 2019, led by Columbus and Virginia Beach, both of which saw cost burden rates rise by more than 9.0 points over this period.

Other large swings were felt in Tampa, Nashville, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, and Raleigh, each following within a point or two of each other, between 7.2 and 8.8 percentage points.

Residents of a second group of moderately worsened metros, including Dallas, Houston, Seattle, and San Francisco, experienced a smaller but still substantial five-year increase in cost burdens, ranging from 3.0 to 6.0 percentage points. The moderately worsened group is made up primarily of high-growth Sun Belt metros and slower-growing coastal ones, suggesting that separate mechanisms are driving rising costs.

Most Sun Belt metros experienced front-loaded cost-burden increases early on during the pandemic as surges in domestic migration strained affordable housing availability. Meanwhile, Seattle and San Francisco experienced these spikes later, as renewed tech-sector hiring and return-to-office mandates, fueled by AI-driven labor demand, reignited housing demand in metros where new supply has struggled to keep pace.

Sixteen metros saw the average cost burden rate rise by less than 3.0 points, including Austin, San Diego, Denver, and Washington, while San Jose and Denver experienced modest declines in cost burdens.

Much like the research on post-pandemic home prices shows, a metro's pre-2019 trajectory appears to do little to predict the intensity of the pandemic-era reversals. Columbus and Virginia Beach, which posted the two largest cost burden rate increases in the analysis, both logged some of the steepest pre-pandemic improvements of any metro, down by more than 7.0 points apiece before 2019. Meanwhile, Las Vegas and San Antonio have posted similarly large post-2019 cost burden increases, but were already worsening before the pandemic hit.

San Jose and Rochester are the only two of 50 metros where cost burden rates kept improving after 2019. Yet Rochester's severe cost burden still climbed 2.5 points, proof that a market can look like it's moving in the right direction on paper while moving the wrong way underneath it.

Severe Cost Burdens Reveal More Nuance

Severe cost burden levels, where a household spends 50.0% or more of their income on rent, have tracked closely with the broader cost burden measure nationally. However, where these two metrics diverge at the metro level tells a more nuanced affordability story.

In several metros, tepid cost burden increases hide deeper affordability constraints across the income distribution.

One example is St. Louis, where the overall cost burden has barely moved since 2019, rising just 1.1 percentage points over the five-year analysis period. However, severe cost burdens are up nearly four times more, rising 4.4 percentage points during this period.

A metro can experience severe cost burden increases while the headline number holds steady when cost constraints for existing cost-burdened renters get even tighter, even if a low volume of new renters enter this pool.

Rochester, which was one of only two metros out of the top 50 nationally where the headline cost burden rate improved, has seen the share of renters paying 50% or more on rent rise by 2.5 percentage points.

Looking Ahead

Rising multifamily apartment completions over the past two years have slowed average rent growth in several Sun Belt and other fast-growing metros. However, severe cost burden increases signal that market-rate supply increases have failed to improve affordability for many.

As renter cost burdens garner increased industry and policy attention, analyzing the severe cost burden segment separately allows for a more detailed picture to develop.

Appendix

Weighted using HHWT. Population is renter households in housing units (GQ 1-2) with positive reported income and gross rent. Cost burden is gross rent equal to 30% or more of household income annually; severe cost burden, a subset of the cost-burdened population, is 50% or more. Metro-level figures are limited to the top 50 metros by weighted renter household count, not by total population, and cover 2012-2024, as 2010 and 2011 ACS samples do not carry current metro area delineations. Metro-level change figures reflect 2019-2024. The national trend is shown from 2012 forward for comparability with the metro-level analysis. 2020 is excluded, as the Census Bureau did not release 1-year ACS estimates that year. ACS 1-year estimates carry sampling error that is more pronounced for smaller metros; figures near a tier boundary should not be read as sharply distinct from neighboring metros just outside it.