COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE'S ECONOMIC ADVISORS

Multifamily rent growth continued to moderate in November 2025, with national rent gains remaining positive in nominal terms but negative after adjusting for inflation. The latest Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) data point to a rent environment that is materially cooler than the post-pandemic peak and running below long-run historical norms, even as nominal rents continue to edge higher.

Over the past decade, the share of homeowners who own their homes free and clear has risen sharply across the New York metropolitan area. This dynamic is most extreme in Manhattan (New York County), where roughly 50% of homeowners now own their homes without a mortgage.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) November jobs data, US employers added 64,0000 jobs in November, slightly beating expectations but reflecting a significant slowdown in payroll growth. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest since September 2021.

As we approach the end of 2025, major policy developments in Washington—from defense negotiations to the ongoing FY 2026 budget fight—will have significant implications for housing policy.

While on-time collections remain well below post-pandemic highs, the recent positive inflection suggests a rebound is already underway. Objectively, current collection levels represent underperformance, though the upward trajectory is justifiably fueling optimism.

As voters seek solutions to affordability, the ongoing shutdown increases the risk of a cascading impact on housing development and security.

The protracted government shutdown squeezes housing programs, 'data fog' creates a conundrum for the Fed, and a US-China trade truce offers cautious optimism to developers.