COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE'S ECONOMIC ADVISORS

Despite the job market's relative underperformance, futures markets indicate a low likelihood of a January rate cut.

Over the past two decades, the New York City metro rental market hasn’t just grown — it has aged. Beneath the headline narratives about rent growth and post-pandemic volatility, a quieter structural shift has been unfolding: nearly all net growth in rental households has come from renters over the age of 35, while the number of under-35 renters has barely changed.

This week’s Rental Housing Weekly Briefing covers multifamily CMBS delinquency trends, national home price dynamics, and key macro and housing data to watch in the week ahead.

Recent national data continue to point toward gradual improvement. While on-time collections remain well below post-pandemic highs, the recent positive inflection — combined with improvement since late summer — supports a cautiously optimistic outlook.

Multifamily rent growth continued to moderate in November 2025, with national rent gains remaining positive in nominal terms but negative after adjusting for inflation. The latest Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) data point to a rent environment that is materially cooler than the post-pandemic peak and running below long-run historical norms, even as nominal rents continue to edge higher.

Over the past decade, the share of homeowners who own their homes free and clear has risen sharply across the New York metropolitan area. This dynamic is most extreme in Manhattan (New York County), where roughly 50% of homeowners now own their homes without a mortgage.

As we approach the end of 2025, major policy developments in Washington—from defense negotiations to the ongoing FY 2026 budget fight—will have significant implications for housing policy.

While on-time collections remain well below post-pandemic highs, the recent positive inflection suggests a rebound is already underway. Objectively, current collection levels represent underperformance, though the upward trajectory is justifiably fueling optimism.