COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE'S ECONOMIC ADVISORS

The latest employment report signals to policymakers that heightened uncertainty has not yet dampened US firms’ hiring activity, leaving them likely, all else equal, to leave rates unchanged.

Following the GDP release, there was a 74.4% chance of at least four rate cuts by the end of 2025, compared to a 68.1% probability one day prior.

The average futures market outlook for the year-end 2025 federal funds remained at a total of three rate cuts by December, but the better-than-expected inflation data caused the probability to increase.

Interest rate futures had a mostly muted reaction to the jobs data, with the previous week of market-moving news proving more impactful.