Real Impact: What The April 2025 Jobs Report Means for Rental Housing

What Happened:

The US Economy added 177k payrolls in April, above consensus estimates of 130k, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released on Friday. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%.

It was a strong showing for firms despite being a month headlined by heightened economic uncertainty and volatility. April’s job growth slightly edged out the average monthly increase of 152k over the past 12 months.

Payrolls grew the most in the healthcare sector (+51k), transportation and warehousing (+29k), and financial activities (+14k). The increase in transportation and warehousing employment comes after little change in March and arrives after an uptick in logistics activity, including imports and inventories, to start the year. Federal government employment continued to decline (-9k).

Impact on Interest Rates:

Forecasts for May’s FOMC policy meeting were little changed following the release of the April jobs report, indicating that the consensus of no change in rates assumes that the labor market remains steady. The latest employment report signals to policymakers that heightened uncertainty has not yet dampened US firms’ hiring activity, leaving them likely, all else equal, to leave rates unchanged.

The average futures market outlook for the year-end 2025 federal funds rate remained at a forecast of four rate cuts by December, with little movement in alternate probabilities. One day ago, there was a 58.6% probability of at least four FOMC rate cuts by the end of 2024, compared to a slightly lower 52.7% following the jobs report release.

What It Means for Rental Housing:

Steady employment growth is certainly a healthy signal for renter demand, but more wait-and-see on interest rate cuts will keep financing costs high for developers. Still, taken as a whole, steady job growth, elevated mortgage rates, and the so-far benign effect of recent uncertainty bode well for Multifamily fundamentals.