COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE'S ECONOMIC ADVISORS

A post-pandemic surge in Multifamily completions has lifted apartment vacancies off their 2021 floor, but long-term structural underbuilding remains.

Recent national data paint a picture of improvement and cautious optimism. While on-time collections remain well below post-pandemic highs, the recent positive inflection suggests the sector has likely already found its bottom.

69.4% of multifamily markets nationwide saw rents rise between August and September—down a de minimis 44 basis points from the prior month (69.8%).

Notably, the number of moves is up 12.1% compared to the 2024 total, making it the largest annual increase since at least the turn of the century. Further, it is the first time that the number of moves increased in consecutive years since 2010.

The Administration considers a national housing emergency as residential markets send mixed signals.

On-time rental payments in independently operated units improved in September 2025 — offering hope that the sector is moving off its performance floor. According to this month’s first estimate, 83.1% of units paid their full rent on time — an increase of 58 basis points (bps) from August.

Tariffs face legal uncertainty, lumber and furniture tariffs may introduce fresh headwinds for housing, and the Fed prepares to cut rates.

A monthly summary of commercial real estate insights and analysis from Chandan Economics and our partners.