Real Impact: What the November 2025 Jobs Report Means for Rental Housing

Real Impact by Chandan Economics explores how cornerstone data releases influence interest rate forecasts and reshape the rental housing sector's outlook.

Last Updated: December 16, 2025

What Happened: According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) November jobs data, US employers added 64,0000 jobs in November, slightly beating expectations but reflecting a significant slowdown in payroll growth. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest since September 2021. Moreover, supplemental data from October show that the US shed 105,000 jobs, largely due to a decline in government employment.

What It Means for Interest Rates: In the days since the Fed's December interest rate cut, several statements from FOMC officials suggest that many are increasingly conflicted about how to respond to ongoing economic developments. Tuesday's report will likely push officials towards further accommodation, but many remain unsettled by today's sustained above-target inflation. So far, futures markets appear skeptical of a January cut.

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Fed Watch Tool, futures markets have not budged in reaction to the tepid jobs data. On both the day before and the morning of the November jobs report, Fed Funds futures showed just a 24.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut in January.

There has also been no significant change in the number of cuts expected in 2026. On average, markets don't expect another FOMC interest rate cut until April 2026.

What It Means for Rental Housing: On the surface, the slowing labor market and muted wage growth are emerging headwinds to demand. While rental housing demand tends to be less elastic to labor market changes than in other areas of the economy, it will undoubtedly affect renters' ability to reach their ideal housing preferences and put downward pressure on rent growth.

On the flip side, additional interest rate cuts could help operators and consumers weather the storm. However, with current projections indicating no additional rate cuts until April, any immediate relief will depend on the Fed's previous cuts filtering through to market interest rates.

Meanwhile, the next key indicator for futures markets will come on Thursday, when the BLS releases its November CPI report. The inflation data should provide greater clarity on current economic dynamics and hint at the direction Fed officials may lean as we head into the new year.