Real Impact: What the September 2025 Jobs Report Means for Rental Housing

Real Impact by Chandan Economics explores how cornerstone data releases influence interest rate forecasts and reshape the rental housing sector's outlook.

Last Updated: November 21, 2025

What Happened: According to a delayed release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' September payrolls data, US employers added 119,000 jobs in September, more than double the consensus Wall Street estimate and recovering from the 4,000 jobs decline in August. Still, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%, its highest level since October 2021.

What It Means for Interest Rates: September's employment report ended a 44-day data vacuum, during which the lack of new labor and inflation data heightened market uncertainty, yet the expectation of a December rate cut mostly held firm.

However, by the afternoon following the jobs report release, there was a 60.9% chance that the FOMC would hold rates unchanged at its December policy meeting, compared to a 39.1% probability of a 25-basis-point cut. Forecasts for a 25 basis point cut in December are down from 50.1% one week ago and 98.8% one month ago.

What It Means for Rental Housing: The data's outdated nature calls into question its usefulness for predicting the Fed's December decision.

In recent days, several major US companies have announced layoffs. At the same time, ADP data shows that the four-week moving average for private-sector job creation turned negative toward the end of October. Officials will likely rely on additional private employment data that arrives in the coming weeks, alongside reports such as the Fed's Beige Book survey and the September Producer Price Index, to tailor their December votes.

Recently released construction data for August showed a 1.6% year-over-year decline in private sector spending before inflation adjustments. Construction input costs rose 2.2% over the same period.

Nonetheless, private residential construction rose 0.8% from July, driven by Multifamily spending. While the data is lagged, it offers us a clue to how building activity may have responded to lower borrowing costs in September.

Both construction activity and rental demand appear to need additional rate-cut support to stabilize, and the September jobs data calls this into question in the short term. The consequences of the recent shutdown are expected to extend to October data collection and analysis, leaving Fed officials much to chew over this Thanksgiving.