Which States Rely Most on Non-Citizen Construction Labor?

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Following the reelection of Donald Trump to the White House, markets have raced to understand the next four years’ emerging growth and risk factors. Among the risks, a promise to carry out mass deportations is one of the most economically impactful, especially for the residential housing market. The construction sector, which relies on non-citizen and often undocumented workers to fill its workforce, could experience a significant labor supply shock—creating downstream implications for housing affordability.

Nationally, according to the 2023 American Community Survey, the non-citizen share of the construction labor force stands at 17.0%. Of course, this share varies significantly across the US, with a handful of states carrying a non-citizen share above 25%.

New Jersey is where the local construction sector would likely be the most sensitive to any impending immigration policy changes. In total, 28.3% of New Jersey’s construction labor force are not citizens. Following closely behind are California (27.9%) and Texas (27.4%). Two factors that appear determinative of the non-citizen share of construction labor are overall population size and geographic proximity to the US southern border. Notably, both of these boxes are checked by California and Texas.

Several high-growth states, where populations have swelled over the past decade, are also near the top of the list. In addition to Texas – Nevada (26.5%), Georgia (21.1%), Florida (19.8%), and North Carolina (19.3%) all sit within the top 10.

While President-elect Trump’s intention to carry out the largest deportation in US history is clear, the size, scope, and efficacy of upcoming policy changes is not. Campaign trail rhetoric has indicated that the new administration would aim for 15-20 million deportations — an estimate that likely exceeds the total number of undocumented immigrants currently in the US. Meanwhile, according to the Brooking Institution’s modeled low- and high-end deportation scenarios, between 500 thousand and 1.5 million interior removals are forecast in 2025.

As we look ahead to 2025 and the turnover of presidential administrations, plenty of uncertainty remains. With immigration policies set to take center stage, the US housing market will be among the most attentive audience members.