COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE'S ECONOMIC ADVISORS

This week’s Rental Housing Weekly Briefing covers multifamily CMBS delinquency trends, national home price dynamics, and key macro and housing data to watch in the week ahead.

Recent national data continue to point toward gradual improvement. While on-time collections remain well below post-pandemic highs, the recent positive inflection — combined with improvement since late summer — supports a cautiously optimistic outlook.

Multifamily rent growth continued to moderate in November 2025, with national rent gains remaining positive in nominal terms but negative after adjusting for inflation. The latest Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) data point to a rent environment that is materially cooler than the post-pandemic peak and running below long-run historical norms, even as nominal rents continue to edge higher.

Over the past decade, the share of homeowners who own their homes free and clear has risen sharply across the New York metropolitan area. This dynamic is most extreme in Manhattan (New York County), where roughly 50% of homeowners now own their homes without a mortgage.

While on-time collections remain well below post-pandemic highs, the recent positive inflection suggests a rebound is already underway. Objectively, current collection levels represent underperformance, though the upward trajectory is justifiably fueling optimism.

If Thanksgiving 2020 feels like a long time ago, your grocery bill agrees. Across the core staples of a traditional holiday spread, prices are meaningfully higher than they were five years ago — though not always in the ways people expect.

Nationally, rents grew an average of 0.11% month over month. If sustained for a full year, that would translate to annual rent growth of about 1.4% — modest, but still positive. However, rent growth continues to come in below CPI inflation, which is currently holding near 3%, meaning inflation‑adjusted rents are falling