While returns near elections are lower on average, there is no observable causal relationship.
When controlling for recessions, the impact of an election falls to near zero.
Multifamily asset price growth has slowed with COVID-19 but performance has held up compared to the Great Recession.
As a follow up to our recent Chatter blog piece, highlighting lower returns and increased volatility for public equities near U.S. presidential elections, this article narrows in on multifamily asset prices. Reviewing Real Capital Analytics data from 2001 through the present, we find that multifamily prices tend to grow less quickly near general elections.
However, with the limited number of general elections over the sample period and the deep recession of 2008, slumping asset prices near election day may prove to be more happenstance rather than resulting from an independent causal relationship. In this limited study, when controlling for the effects of a recession, the impact of an election on multifamily prices falls to near zero.
For the full analysis, visit Arbor Chatter at the Arbor Realty Trust website.