Rental Housing Weekly Briefing: February 2-6, 2026

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This week’s Rental Housing Weekly Briefing examines key takeaways from NMHC’s Annual Meeting, including evolving capital markets and operating dynamics in multifamily, alongside recent national home price trends from the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index and the key data releases to watch in the week ahead.

LAST WEEK in RENTAL HOUSING 

Key Takeaways from the NMHC Annual Meeting

• Capital markets caution remains widespread. Across panels at the National Multifamily Housing Council annual meeting, owners and lenders consistently emphasized that refinancing risk — not operating fundamentals — remains the dominant concern. Higher-for-longer rates continue to weigh on transaction activity and deal execution.

• Operating fundamentals are holding up better than expected. Despite slower rent growth and elevated supply in select Sun Belt markets, most operators reported stable occupancy and manageable expense growth. The consensus view was that fundamentals are softening, not breaking.

• Supply pressures are becoming more localized. While new deliveries remain elevated nationally, attendees highlighted that absorption dynamics vary sharply by submarket. Markets with strong job bases and limited future pipelines are already seeing conditions stabilize.

• 2026 planning is increasingly pragmatic. Rather than betting on rapid rate relief, many firms are underwriting conservatively, extending hold periods, and prioritizing balance-sheet resilience. The tone was less defensive than mid-2024, but far from expansionary.

• For a more in-depth conference recap and detailed breakdown of themes discussed at NMHC, readers may also reference Jay Parsons’ analysis, “21 Takeaways from NMHC’s Annual Meeting,” which provides additional color on investor sentiment, capital markets dynamics, and operating fundamentals.

Home Prices via the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Index (Seasonally Adjusted)

• National home prices posted solid month-over-month gains in October and November 2025 on a seasonally adjusted basis, with growth running at roughly 0.4% in each month. That pace is notable because it aligns closely with the pre-pandemic norm: between 2015 and 2019, average monthly home price growth also ran near 0.4%.

• On a year-over-year basis, price growth remains muted relative to the post-pandemic surge, reflecting ongoing affordability constraints and reduced transaction volume. Annual gains are positive (+1.4%) but historically modest, reinforcing that this phase represents normalization rather than renewed overheating.

• The return to pre-pandemic-style monthly growth suggests the market has largely absorbed the shock of higher mortgage rates. Buyer and seller expectations appear to be converging, with less evidence of forced price cuts and more signs of price stability in supply-constrained markets.

• For rental housing, the implication is continuity rather than disruption. Home prices are no longer accelerating rapidly enough to worsen affordability, but they are also not softening enough to materially unlock homeownership. That balance continues to support rental demand, even as affordability conditions slowly improve at the margin.

THE WEEK AHEAD 

February 3, 2026:

• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (BLS)

• Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Survey (Census Bureau)

February 4, 2026:

• ADP National Employment Report

February 6, 2026:

• January 2026 Jobs Report (BLS)