The Great Stay-Put: Moving Expectations Fall to New Lows

Key Points

1. Just 21.7% of Americans expect to move within the next three years, the lowest level in the New York Fed’s post-2014 tracking.

2. Renters remain more mobile than homeowners, but their expected probability of moving has fallen sharply, from 57.5% in 2016 to 36.6% in 2026.

3. Declining mobility expectations are consistent with observed mobility trends and likely reflect a mix of affordability constraints, remote work flexibility, and aging-in-place dynamics.

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The US housing market is not just expensive. It also appears to be becoming less fluid.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations Housing Survey, the average self-assessed probability of moving within the next three years fell to 21.7%. Put differently, only about one in five Americans expects to move over that horizon. That is the lowest reading in the New York Fed’s post-2014 tracking and down meaningfully from the roughly one-in-three level recorded in the mid-2010s.

The expectations data point to a housing market where households feel less likely to move, and recently observed mobility data suggest that this dynamic is already taking shape. Research from Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies found that household mobility fell to its lowest rate on record in 2024, with 14.8 million households moving, representing a mobility rate of 11.2%.

Together, the survey expectations and observed mobility data point in the same direction: the US housing market is becoming stickier. Households are moving less than they once did, and they also report lower expected probabilities of moving in the years ahead. Across renters, homeowners, age groups, education levels, and income cohorts, expected mobility has declined. The result is a housing market where households may increasingly prefer, or feel compelled, to stay put.

Renters Remain More Mobile, But Expectations Have Fallen Sharply

The decline in moving expectations is visible across both sides of the housing market, but it is especially pronounced among renters. In 2026, renters reported a 36.6% average probability of moving within the next three years, down from 57.5% in 2016. Homeowners also reached a survey low, with a 14.1% expected probability of moving, down from 20.2% in 2016.

Renters still report much higher expected mobility than homeowners. That is not surprising. Renters generally face fewer transaction barriers than owners, and rental housing typically experiences more frequent turnover. But the renter decline is significant for precisely that reason. If renter households feel less likely to move, it may point to lower rental turnover, longer average tenures, and fewer households moving through the early stages of the housing ladder.

The timing of the decline is also notable. Renter mobility expectations were relatively stable through much of the mid-to-late 2010s. From 2014 through 2019, the average renter’s expected probability of moving within the next three years remained in the mid-to-high 50% range. Since then, the series has fallen steadily. By 2026, renter mobility expectations were roughly 21 percentage points below their 2016 level.

For homeowners, the decline has been less dramatic in percentage-point terms but still directionally important. Homeowners’ expected probability of moving has fallen by about 6 percentage points since 2016. This is consistent with a market where many owners face high replacement costs, limited for-sale inventory, and mortgage-rate lock-in dynamics that reduce the appeal of selling and buying again.

Taken together, the renter and owner data suggest that the decline in expected mobility is not only a renter-to-owner transition story. It is a broader housing-market fluidity story.

Expected Mobility Has Fallen Across Key Household Groups

The decline in moving expectations is broad-based. Comparing 2016 and 2026 shows lower expected probabilities of moving across every major group tracked in the survey cut: age, education, income, and tenure.

Age remains one of the clearest dividing lines. Households under 50 continue to report higher expected mobility than households age 50 and over, but both groups have moved lower. Among those under 50, the expected probability of moving within the next three years fell from 44.1% in 2016 to 32.7% in 2026. Among those 50 and over, the expected probability declined from 19.6% to 12.9%.

Education and income groups show a similar pattern. Among households with less than a bachelor’s degree, moving expectations declined from 28.8% in 2016 to 18.5% in 2026. Among households with a bachelor’s degree or higher, they fell from 35.4% to 27.6%. By income, households earning less than $60,000 annually saw expected mobility decline from 32.3% to 19.0%, while households earning $60,000 or more saw a smaller decline, from 29.9% to 24.5%.

The differences across groups matter. Lower-income households may be more constrained by moving costs, higher asking rents, security deposits, and limited affordable replacement options. Higher-income households may be more affected by elevated home prices, higher borrowing costs, and mortgage-rate lock-in. Younger households remain more mobile, but even they report much lower expected mobility than a decade ago. Older households, meanwhile, report the lowest moving expectations, consistent with the natural life-cycle pattern of lower mobility at older ages.

In other words, the “stay-put” dynamic does not appear to have one single cause. Different groups may be staying put, or expecting to stay put, for different reasons.

Why the Housing Market May Be Getting Stickier

Several forces are likely contributing to lower expected mobility.

The most direct is affordability. For homeowners, elevated mortgage rates have strengthened the lock-in effect. Many owners who financed or refinanced at historically low rates would face a materially higher monthly payment if they sold their current home and bought another property at today’s borrowing costs. High home values and limited inventory add to the replacement-cost challenge.

For renters, moving can also be expensive. Switching rental units may mean paying a higher asking rent, absorbing moving costs, covering application fees or broker fees in some markets, and putting down a new security deposit. Even when a renter is not trying to buy a home, staying put can create savings at the margin. In a high-cost housing environment, that can reduce the appeal of moving unless the move is clearly necessary or strongly preferred.

Remote work may also be reducing the need for some moves. Much of the post-pandemic housing narrative has focused on how remote work allowed workers to relocate. That was true for many households, especially earlier in the pandemic period. But the opposite effect may also matter. If workers can access jobs, manage commutes, or remain connected to employers without relocating, some moves that once would have been necessary may no longer take place.

Demographics are another part of the story. Older households typically move less frequently than younger households, and the aging of the population mechanically shifts more households into lower-mobility life stages. At the same time, aging in place may be becoming more feasible for many seniors.

According to Chandan Economics’ analysis of American Community Survey data (via IPUMS), the share of people age 65 and older reporting no difficulty performing basic activities outside the home alone has increased since 2010. In 2024, roughly 85.5% of seniors reported no independent living difficulty, up from about 81.4% in 2010.

This does not mean every senior can or wants to remain in their current home. Housing design, health needs, family structure, and local care options all matter. But the trend is consistent with the broader aging-in-place narrative. If more seniors are able to remain independent for longer, fewer older households may expect to move, reinforcing the broader decline in expected mobility.

The Bottom Line

The 2026 SCE Housing Survey points to a housing market with less expected movement across the tenure spectrum. Renters remain more mobile than homeowners, but renter mobility expectations have fallen sharply over the past decade. Homeowners, meanwhile, report lower expected mobility as high replacement costs and mortgage-rate lock-in reduce the appeal of moving.

The causes are likely overlapping. Affordability pressures raise the cost of moving. Remote work can reduce the need for relocation. Aging in place may allow more older households to remain where they are for longer. Together, these forces point to a housing market that is becoming stickier.