Outer Boroughs Lead NYC Housing Market as Manhattan Home Values Stall

A data-driven look at how home values are diverging across New York City’s boroughs, based on neighborhood-level trends from Zillow’s Home Value Index through January 2026.

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Home price growth across New York City remained positive through January 2026, but performance diverged meaningfully by borough. Looking across the distribution of neighborhood outcomes — rather than just isolated standouts — Manhattan stands out as a clear laggard. Its 25th percentile neighborhood declined 1.7% year-over-year, the median was essentially flat at -0.3%, and even the 75th percentile saw modest growth of just 1.8%. No other borough posted weaker performance across all three markers.

Elsewhere in the city, appreciation was both broader and stronger. Brooklyn and the Bronx posted the most robust upper-quartile gains, with 75th percentile neighborhoods rising 5.8% in each borough. Queens was close behind at 5.6%, while Staten Island’s upper quartile advanced 5.3%. Importantly, gains were not limited to the top end: median neighborhood values rose between 3.6% and 4.4% across Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, and Staten Island, signaling broad-based resilience outside Manhattan.

Several structural factors help explain the divergence. Affordability remains the most immediate driver. With mortgage rates still elevated relative to pre-2022 levels, buyer demand has skewed toward comparatively lower-priced boroughs, where entry points remain meaningfully below Manhattan’s. In many outer-borough neighborhoods, price points align more closely with FHA and conventional conforming loan limits, broadening the buyer pool and sustaining transaction activity.

At the same time, Manhattan’s housing stock is disproportionately concentrated in higher-priced co-ops and condominiums, segments that are more sensitive to financing costs and wealth effects tied to equity markets. The outer boroughs, by contrast, contain a larger share of one- to three-family homes, which have benefited from persistent demand for space, neighborhood amenities, and relative value. In short, 2025 was less about speculative upside and more about attainable price points — and that dynamic favored the outer boroughs.

Manhattan: Select Pockets of Strength Amid Broader Softness

Despite Manhattan’s lagging borough-wide performance, several high-profile neighborhoods posted meaningful gains over the past year. Midtown led the borough with a 12.2% year-over-year increase in home values, followed by SoHo at 8.1% and Greenwich Village at 6.0%. Tribeca also advanced 5.4%, while the East Village rose 4.9%.

The strength at the top of the leaderboard reflects a rebound in select luxury and prime submarkets, particularly those with new development exposure or strong investor appeal. However, the five-year context tells a more nuanced story. Several neighborhoods posting solid one-year gains — including Greenwich Village (-12.4% over five years), Turtle Bay (-14.9%), Chelsea (-15.6%), and Flatiron (-13.3%) — remain below their pre-2021 levels. Even as momentum has returned in certain pockets, longer-term price recovery across Manhattan remains uneven.

Brooklyn: Broad-Based Gains Across Diverse Submarkets

Brooklyn’s top-performing neighborhoods highlight both geographic and price-tier diversity. Mill Basin led the borough with a 13.1% year-over-year increase in home values, followed by Prospect Heights at 8.8% and Midwood at 7.6%. Boerum Hill (7.5%) and Greenpoint (7.4%) also posted strong gains, while a wide range of other neighborhoods clustered in the 6% to 7% range.

Unlike Manhattan, Brooklyn’s strength appears more distributed rather than concentrated in a handful of luxury pockets. Neighborhoods spanning waterfront enclaves, brownstone districts, and more residential southern Brooklyn markets all participated in the advance. Five-year trends further reinforce this durability: Greenpoint (+30.1% over five years), Borough Park (+28.1%), and Mill Basin (+25.1%) have seen substantial longer-run appreciation. While some areas such as Brooklyn Heights (-14.0% over five years) remain below prior peaks, the overall pattern suggests Brooklyn’s 2025 gains reflect sustained demand rather than a narrow rebound.

Queens: Affordability and Space Drive Sustained Momentum

Queens’ top-performing neighborhoods reflect strong appreciation across more residential, lower-density submarkets. Belle Harbor led the borough with a 9.7% year-over-year increase in home values, followed closely by Douglaston (9.5%) and Broad Channel (8.9%). Springfield Gardens (8.0%) and Jamaica (7.6%) also posted notable gains, with a broad cluster of neighborhoods rising between 6% and 7%.

Contrasting against Manhattan’s concentrated rebound in select luxury enclaves, Queens’ appreciation appears rooted in attainable price points and single- to two-family housing stock. Many of the borough’s strongest performers are areas characterized by detached homes, suburban-style layouts, and relative affordability compared to brownstone Brooklyn or core Manhattan. The five-year figures underscore this longer-run resilience: Jamaica (+33.5%), Broad Channel (+31.4%), and Douglaston (+24.8%) have seen substantial cumulative growth. In Queens, 2025’s gains look less like a rebound and more like a continuation of sustained demand for value-oriented neighborhoods.

Bronx: Strong Short-Term Gains, Uneven Long-Term Recovery

The Bronx posted some of the strongest one-year gains in the city. Norwood led the borough with a 12.0% increase in home values, followed by Concourse at 11.0%. Baychester rose 8.4%, while Pelham Bay (6.9%) and Van Nest (6.6%) also recorded solid appreciation.

However, the five-year picture reveals a more complex dynamic. Several of the Bronx’s top one-year performers remain below their pre-2021 levels, including Norwood (-27.5% over five years), Highbridge (-20.7%), and Pelham Bay (-10.9%). In these areas, 2025 appears more like a recovery phase than a continuation of long-run expansion. At the same time, other neighborhoods — including Van Nest (+33.3% over five years), Throggs Neck (+29.0%), and Pelham Gardens (+21.1%) — have delivered sustained multi-year appreciation.

Taken together, the Bronx’s recent gains reflect both cyclical rebound and structural affordability-driven demand. The borough’s relatively lower entry points continue to attract buyers even as Manhattan softness persists, but longer-run performance remains uneven across submarkets.

Staten Island: Steady, Broad-Based Appreciation

Staten Island’s top-performing neighborhoods reflect stable, mid- to high-single-digit growth rather than sharp spikes. Silver Lake led the borough with an 8.2% year-over-year increase in home values, followed by Grant City at 7.0% and Graniteville at 6.4%. Several other neighborhoods — including New Brighton, Bay Terrace, and Clifton — posted gains clustered around 6%.

Unlike parts of the Bronx, Staten Island’s recent strength is supported by durable five-year appreciation across nearly all top performers. Graniteville (+26.6% over five years), Park Hill (+26.4%), Grant City (+25.9%), and Todt Hill (+25.4%) have all delivered sustained multi-year growth. The consistency suggests that Staten Island’s housing market has benefited from persistent demand for relatively affordable, lower-density housing stock with suburban characteristics.

In contrast to Manhattan’s uneven recovery, Staten Island’s performance appears less cyclical and more structural — defined by steady buyer demand rather than rebound dynamics.