Which Markets Will See the Strongest Rent Growth Over the Next 12 Months?

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In this deep dive, we deploy a simple, model-based framework to identify the US metro areas best positioned for robust rent growth over the coming year. Even as national rent growth slows and home prices come under pressure, many rental markets still have the wind at their back.

Framework

To determine which markets are best positioned for outsized rent growth, we rely on three criteria:

1. Differential between annual home price growth and rent growth

2. Year-ahead home price growth forecast

3. Month-over-month change in rent prices

   
   

Factors 1 and 2 are rooted in the strong historical correlation between home price and rent growth. Nationally, since 2016, annual rent growth is 82% correlated with home price growth. Over the past year, that correlation has remained above 70% across the top 100 metros.

In markets where home prices have outpaced rents, it suggests rents may have room to catch up. By incorporating the year-ahead home price forecast, we assume this relationship will continue to be a reliable predictor of future rent growth.

Lastly, we include month-over-month rent changes as a measure of momentum. If we’re trying to determine which cars will travel furthest in a race, it helps to know which ones already have the transmission set to drive at the starting line.

Two Needles in the Haystack

Among the top 100 metros, only two satisfy all three of the above criteria: Rochester, NY, and Syracuse, NY.

Rochester’s rental market is buoyed by relative affordability, tight housing supply, and steady population retention. With home prices rising faster than rents, there’s room for rent growth to follow. A stable employment base in education and healthcare supports demand, even as new rental construction remains limited.

Only about a quarter (27) of the top 100 markets have a positive home price growth forecast for the year ahead, according to Zillow. Not only do Rochester (+2.2%) and Syracuse (+2.1%) make that list — they land on the podium, with the second- and third-highest home price growth forecasts, respectively.

Syracuse, meanwhile, is benefiting from increased investor interest and a growing local economy tied to the Micron chip facility in nearby Clay, NY. The city’s modest housing stock and relatively low rental base create runway for further appreciation, particularly as employment and housing demand ramp up.

Secondary Candidates

Relaxing the “price-rent differential” requirement returns a much wider field of markets. In addition to Rochester and Syracuse, 22 other metros meet both of the remaining criteria: rising rents and a positive home price forecast. Some standouts include Knoxville, TN, Providence, RI, and Philadelphia, PA.

• Knoxville jumps off the page thanks to its housing market forecast: Zillow projects a 2.6% rise in home prices over the year ending May 2026 — the highest of any market in this analysis. As mentioned, only 1 in 4 top 100 metros are expected to see price gains at all.

• Providence earns a spot based on momentum. Between April and May, local rent prices jumped 1.4%. If sustained, that would annualize to 17.6% rent growth — far outpacing national trends.

• Philadelphia stands out not for magnitude, but for scale. Its 0.2% month-over-month rent growth and 0.1% home price forecast are modest — but it’s the largest metro (No. 7 by population) to satisfy both criteria. The next largest market is Charlotte (No. 23).

  
  

The Bottom Line

With home sellers continuing to outnumber buyers and mortgage rates hovering near 7%, a national surge in home prices remains unlikely in the near term. That dynamic is weighing on rental demand in many markets — but not all. Roughly one-quarter of the top 100 US metros still show the right mix of price conditions, forward-looking demand, and rental momentum — with the unexpected upstate duo of Rochester and Syracuse leading the way.

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