Rental Housing Weekly Briefing: January 5-9, 2026

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This week’s Rental Housing Weekly Briefing covers multifamily CMBS delinquency trends, national home price dynamics, and key macro and housing data to watch in the week ahead.

LAST WEEK in RENTAL HOUSING 

Multifamily CMBS Delinquency Trends (Trepp)

• Multifamily CMBS delinquency rates have edged modestly lower into late 2025. As of December, the delinquency rate stands at 6.64%, down from 7.12% in October and below levels observed earlier in the fall. While still elevated relative to pre-pandemic norms, recent month-to-month movement points to incremental improvement rather than renewed deterioration.

• Viewed over shorter horizons, the data suggest stabilization rather than acceleration. The December delinquency rate sits slightly above where it stood three months ago (6.59% in September), indicating that stress has neither intensified nor meaningfully reversed over the near term following earlier volatility tied to refinancing pressures and higher interest rates.

• Longer-run comparisons remain less favorable. Multifamily delinquency rates are materially higher than six months ago (5.91%) and well above levels from twelve months ago (4.58%), underscoring the lagged impact of tighter financial conditions and elevated borrowing costs working their way through the system.

• Taken together, the data point to a sector that remains under pressure but is no longer deteriorating rapidly. Recent stabilization suggests that income growth, loan modifications, and extensions are helping to contain distress, even as refinancing risk remains a key watchpoint heading into 2026.

Home Prices: S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller (October 2025)

• Annual home price growth remains positive but subdued. National prices rose 1.4% year-over-year in October, continuing a steady deceleration from late 2024. While home values are still higher than a year ago, the pace of appreciation has cooled materially and now sits well below post-pandemic norms.

• Month-over-month momentum has turned modestly positive. Prices edged higher in October following several months of flat to declining readings through the spring and early summer. The stabilization suggests that easing mortgage rates are providing some support, though affordability constraints and elevated inventory continue to limit upside.

• Net effect: home prices are normalizing, not resetting. Values remain well above pre-pandemic levels, but the lack of renewed acceleration indicates a market adjusting to higher borrowing costs and slower household formation rather than entering a broad-based correction heading into 2026.

THE WEEK AHEAD 

January 7, 2026:

• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (BLS)

• ADP National Employment Report (ADP)

• National Financial Conditions Index (Chicago Fed)

January 8, 2026:

• Chandan-RentRedi Rental Housing Webinar (Sign Up Here)

• Initial Claims (US Employment and Training Administration)

• Primary Mortgage Survey (Freddie Mac) 

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January 9, 2026:

• December Jobs Report (BLS)

• New Residential Construction (Census Bureau)